Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs                           University of Minnesota
  Home | Initiatives | Events | Elections | Reports | Public Opinion | Blog               Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs

Elections: 2006 Candidate Profiles

Minnesota - House (1)

District Geography | Summary | History | Outlook | Polls

Gil Gutknecht (Republican, 6-term incumbent)

Website: www.gilg.org

Tim Walz (DFL)

Website: www.timwalz.org

District Geography:

Minnesota's 1st Congressional District comprises counties in the southern rim of the state: Blue Earth, Brown, Cottonwood, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Jackson, Martin, Mower, Murray, Nicollet, Nobles, Olmstead, Pipestone, Rock, Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, Watonwan, and Winona.

Summary:

Six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknech serves on the House Agriculture, Science, and Government Reform Committees. Gutknech is campaigning to expand markets and promote the health of Minnesota agriculture, to make prescription drugs more affordable, and to increase America's independence from foreign oil and by investing more in renewable energy resources.

Tim Walz is an Army National Guard and Iraq War veteran and teacher (Mankato West High School). Walz is campaigning on veterans' issues (health insurance, pay, support system), local control and accountability for education (Federal funding for special education), and lowering the cost of prescription drugs and strengthening health care programs.

History:

Gutknecht was one of the many newly crowned freshman GOP victors from the 1994 House elections, beating DFL nominee John C. Hottinger by 10.5 points in the seat left open by 6-term DFL Representative Tim Penny. Gutknecht won by fairly slender margins in 1996 (5.5 points) and 1998 (9.5 points), but dominated his DFL opponents in 2000 (14.8 points), 2002 (26.8 points), and 2004 (24.1 points).

Outlook:

Gutknecht's double-digit margins of victory in the last three elections indicate he will be difficult to unseat, unless Walz is able to pry away independent and moderate conservative voters with his veteran credentials. Perhaps equally important, there are no third party candidates on the ballot in 2006 to take votes away from the DFL (in 2002 the Green Party received 3.8% of the vote, while in 2004 the Independence Party garnered 4.8% of the vote for this seat).

Polls:

Poll Date
Gutknecht
Walz
Other
No opinion
Sample MoE
Constituent Dynamics1 October 24-26, 2006
49%
45%
1%
5%
1042 ± 3.0
Constituent Dynamics1 October 8-10, 2006
47%
43%
3%
7%
1024 ± 3.1

1 "I would like you to think about the race for Congress. If the election were today, who would you vote for: Republican Gil Gutknecht or Democrat Tim Walz."