CSPG: Upper Midwest Public Opinion Archive

University of Minnesota
Home \| Initiatives \| Events \| Elections \| Reports \| Public Opinion \| Blog Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs

Minnesota: Election 2004 (President)

Election Matchup
Candidate Favorability Ratings
Candidate Political Ideology
Candidate Image
Candidate Issue Handling

Election Matchup

George W. Bush (R) vs. John Kerry (D) vs. Ralph Nader (I)

Poll	Date	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Minnesota Poll¹	October 31 – November 1, 2004	42%	46%	1%	0%	11%	742 LV	± 3.6
Minnesota Poll¹	October 30-31, 2004	40%	47%	1%	0%	11%	722 LV	± 3.7
Minnesota Poll¹	October 26-29, 2004	40%	47%	1%	0%	11%	996 LV	± 3.1
Humphrey Institute²	October 21-26, 2004	47%	43%	5%	1%	4%	690 lV	± 4.0
Minnesota Poll¹	October 9-11, 2004	42%	47%	2%	0%	9%	809 LV	± 3.4
Minnesota Poll¹	September 7-13, 2004	39%	46%	0%	1%	14%	1035 LV	± 3.0
Humphrey Institute²	June 21 – July 12, 2004	44%	45%	4%	1%	5%	589 RV	± 4.0
Minnesota Poll¹	March 28-31, 2004	35%	46%	1%	3%	14%	827LV	± 3.4

1 "If the election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for...?"

2 "Suppose the election for president were being held today. Who would you vote for if the only candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, Independent Ralph Nader, and Libertarian Michael Badnarik?"

George W. Bush (R) vs. John Kerry (D)

Poll	Date	Bush	Kerry	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Zogby	October 29 – November 1, 2004	45%	51%	4%		601 LV	± 4.1
Rasmussen	October 25-31, 2004	47%	48%	5%		600 LV	± 4.0
Zogby	October 28-31, 2004	47%	49%	2%	2%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 27-30, 2004	46%	49%	3%	3%	602 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 26-29, 2004	43%	49%	2%	6%	603 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 25-28, 2004	46%	45%	3%	6%	603 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 24-27, 2004	44%	47%	2%	6%	602 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 23-26, 2004	44%	46%	2%	7%	602 LV	± 4.1
Humphrey Institute¹	October 21-26, 2004	47%	46%	3%	4%	690 LV	± 4.0
Zogby	October 22-25, 2004	43%	48%	3%	7%	602 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 21-24, 2004	45%	46%	4%	6%	603 LV	± 4.1
Rasmussen	October 11-17, 2004	47%	47%	3%	4%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen	September 18-24, 2004	46%	46%	8%		500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen	August 27 – September 3, 2004	46%	46%	8%		400 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	August 1-26, 2004	44%	48%	3%	6%	400 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	July 1-31, 2004	42%	49%	2%	7%	400 LV	± 5.0
Humphrey Institute¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004	44%	45%	4%	6%	589 RV	± 4.0
Rasmussen	June 1-30, 2004	41%	50%	3%	5%	400 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	May 1-31, 2004	43%	48%	4%	5%	400 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	March 23, 2004	44%	47%	9%		500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Suppose the election for president were being held today. Who would you vote for if the only candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?"

Candidate Favorability Ratings

George W. Bush Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Minnesota Poll¹	October 31 – November 1, 2004	47%	46%	7%	742 LV	± 3.6
Minnesota Poll¹	October 30-31, 2004	45%	48%	7%	722 LV	± 3.7
Rasmussen	October 25-31, 2004	50%	49%	1%	600 LV	± 4.0
Minnesota Poll¹	October 26-29, 2004	47%	45%	8%	996 LV	± 3.1
Minnesota Poll¹	October 9-11, 2004	47%	49%	4%	809 LV	± 3.4
Minnesota Poll¹	September 7-13, 2004	46%	47%	7%	1035 LV	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	July 19-24, 2004	47%	48%	5%	1030	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	March 28-31, 2004	49%	46%	5%	827 LV	± 4.1

1 "(Now I will read a list of people in politics. For each one please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don't know the name, just say so.) ... George W. Bush."

John Kerry Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Minnesota Poll¹	October 31 – November 1, 2004	50%	41%	9%	742 LV	± 3.6
Minnesota Poll¹	October 30-31, 2004	51%	40%	9%	722 LV	± 3.7
Rasmussen	October 25-31, 2004	52%	47%	1%	600 LV	± 4.0
Minnesota Poll¹	October 26-29, 2004	53%	38%	9%	996 LV	± 3.1
Minnesota Poll¹	October 9-11, 2004	52%	40%	8%	809 LV	± 3.4
Minnesota Poll¹	September 7-13, 2004	54%	36%	10%	1035 LV	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	July 19-24, 2004	50%	39%	11%	1030	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	March 28-31, 2004	58%	31%	11%	827 LV	± 4.1

John Kerry Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	May 24-26, 2004	43%	25%	31%	1%	625 LV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of John Kerry?"

Ralph Nader Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Minnesota Poll¹	September 7-13, 2004	23%	52%	25%	1035 LV	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	March 28-31, 2004	28%	47%	25%	827 LV	± 4.1

John Edwards Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Minnesota Poll¹	October 9-11, 2004	51%	34%	15%	809 LV	± 3.4
Minnesota Poll¹	September 7-13, 2004	54%	25%	25%	1035 LV	± 3.0

Candidate Political Ideology

George W. Bush Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Too conservative	Not conservative enough	About right	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Humphrey Institute¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004	36%	14%	41%	9%	589 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you think President Bush's position on the issues are too conservative, not conservative enough, or about right?"

John Kerry Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Too liberal	Not liberal enough	About right	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Humphrey Institute¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004	38%	5%	48%	9%	589 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you think Senator John Kerry's position on the issues are too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?"

Candidate Image

Issue¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004			October 21-26, 2004
Issue¹	Bush	Kerry	No opinion	Bush	Kerry	No opinion
He will be a strong leader for the country	48%	44%	9%	50%	44%	6%
He cares about people like me	38%	48%	14%	44%	47%	8%
He flip-flops on the issues	33%	50%	18%	27%	58%	15%
He is stubborn	68%	16%	17%	69%	14%	17%
Poll	Humphrey Institute			Humphrey Institute
Sample	589 RV			690 LV
MoE	± 4.0			± 4.0

1 "I am going to read you a list of statements. Tell me whether you think each statement applies more to George W. Bush or John Kerry ...?"

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004			October 21-26, 2004
Issue¹	Bush	Kerry	No opinion	Bush	Kerry	No opinion
Terrorism	59%	32%	8%	53%	40%	7%
The situation in Iraq	47%	42%	10%	50%	45%	5%
Gay marriage	37%	47%	16%	39%	43%	16%
The economy	43%	48%	8%	45%	48%	6%
Education	32%	57%	10%	41%	50%	8%
Health care	30%	57%	11%	38%	53%	7%
Medicare and prescription drugs	33%	53%	13%	38%	53%	8%
Poll	Humphrey Institute			Humphrey Institute
Sample	589 RV			690 LV
MoE	± 4.0			± 4.0

1 "Which candidate, George W. Bush or John Kerry, do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues ...?"

Issue Positions Associated With Candidates

Issue	Statement¹	John Kerry	George W. Bush
Education	The government in Washington should insist that states set academic standards and measure student performance	19%	41%
	The government should leave academic standards entirely up to the states	25%	21%
	Somewhere in between	27%	21%
	No opinion	30%	17%
Taxes	The government in Washington should cut taxes for everyone, including people making over $200,000 a year, even if it means reducing services	16%	58%
	The government should cut taxes for everyone, except for people making over $200,000 in order to provide services	50%	17%
	Somewhere in between	21%	15%
	No opinion	13%	11%
Iraq	Increase in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq	10%	54%
	Decrease in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq	58%	15%
	Somewhere in between	20%	23%
	No opinion	12%	8%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	June 21 – July 12, 2004
Sample	589 RV
MoE	± 4.0

1 "Which statement do you think comes closer to (John Kerry's / George W. Bush's) point of view or do you think he falls somewhere in between? ..."