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Minnesota: Election 2006 (Governor)

Election Matchup
DFL Primary
Candidate Favorability Ratings
Candidate Political Ideology
Candidate Issue Handling
Candidate Image

Election Matchup

Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Mike Hatch (DFL) vs. Peter Hutchinson (IP)

Poll	Date	Pawlenty	Hatch	Hutchinson	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
SurveyUSA⁵	November 3-5, 2006	45%	45%	8%	2%	1%	710 LV	± 3.8
Minnesota Poll⁶	October 31 – November 3, 2006	40%	45%	7%	1%	7%	1027 LV	± 3.2
Rasmussen⁷	November 1, 2006	45%	47%	6%	1%	1%	500 LV	± 4.5
Pioneer Press / MPR⁴	October 26-30, 2006	42%	44%	4%	3%	7%	625 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute³	October 23-28, 2006	39%	45%	9%	7%		663 LV	± 3.8
St. Cloud State	October 15-27, 2006	36%	46%	6%	4%	7%	499 LV	± 4.0
Rasmussen⁷	October 25, 2006	44%	45%	---	11%		500 LV	± 4.5
SurveyUSA⁵	October 21-23, 2006	44%	45%	7%	2%	2%	606 LV	± 4.1
Minnesota Poll⁶	October 6-11, 2006	37%	46%	7%	1%	9%	818 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen⁷	October 4, 2006	42%	44%	9%	1%	4%	500 LV	± 4.5
SurveyUSA⁵	September 25-27, 2006	45%	44%	6%	1%	3%	616 LV	± 4.0
Pioneer Press / MPR⁴	September 18-20, 2006	42%	39%	5%	3%	11%	625 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute³	September 13-18, 2006	42%	44%	9%	5%		1023 LV	± 3.9
Minnesota Poll⁶	September 13-15, 2006	42%	42%	7%	2%	7%	820 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen⁷	August 28, 2006	45%	39%	8%	8%		500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen⁷	August 1, 2006	46%	36%	6%	12%		500 LV	± 4.5
SurveyUSA²	July 21-23, 2006	50%	36%	8%	6%		616 RV	± 4.1
Minnesota Poll¹	July 6-11, 2006	43%	41%	5%	4%	7%	813 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen⁷	June 26, 2006	42%	47%	---	4%	7%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen⁷	April 27, 2006	39%	49%	---	6%	6%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen⁷	February 20, 2006	40%	45%	---	7%	9%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen⁷	January 16, 2006	47%	44%	---	5%	5%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Whom would you vote for if the election for governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Tim Pawlenty, Democrat Mike Hatch, Green Party candidate Ken Pentel, and Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson?"

2 "If the election for Governor were today, and the only three candidates on the ballot were Republican Tim Pawlenty, DFL candidate Mike Hatch, and Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, who would you vote for?"

3 "Suppose that the election for Governor of Minnesota were being held today. Would you vote for: Republican Tim Pawlenty, Democrat Mike Hatch, or Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson?"

4 "If the 2006 election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote: Republican Tim Pawlenty, Democrat Mike Hatch, Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, or Green Party candidate Ken Pentel?"

5 "If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Tim Pawlenty? DFL candidate Mike Hatch? Green Party candidate Ken Pentel? Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson? Quit Raising Taxes Party candidate Walt Brown? American Party candidate Leslie Davis? Or some other candidate?"

6 "If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Tim Pawlenty, Democrat Mike Hatch, the Green Party's Ken Pentel, the Minnesota Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, the American Party's Leslie Davis, or the Quite Raising Taxes Party's Walt Brown?"

7 "If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Tim Pawlenty or for Democrat Mike Hatch?"

Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Steve Kelly (DFL)

Poll	Date	Pawlenty	Kelly	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	April 27, 2006	38%	43%	8%	11%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	February 20, 2006	42%	42%	7%	10%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	January 16, 2006	46%	37%	8%	10%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "What if the Democrats nominate Steve Kelly? If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Tim Pawlenty or for Democrat Steve Kelly?"

Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Becky Lourey (DFL)

Poll	Date	Pawlenty	Lourey	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	April 27, 2006	40%	43%	6%	6%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "What if the Democrats nominate Becky Lourey? If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Tim Pawlenty or for Democrat Becky Lourey?"

DFL Primary

DFL Primary Matchup

Poll	Date	Hatch	Lourey	Savior	No opinion	Sample	MoE
SurveyUSA¹	September 8-10, 2006	77%	19%	1%	2%	409 LV	± 4.1
SurveyUSA¹	August 26-28, 2006	68%	23%	1%	7%	476 LV	± 4.3

1 "If the DFL Primary for Governor of Minnesota were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for, Mike Hatch, Becky Lourey, or Ole Savior?" Note: Poll asked of likely DFL primary voters only.

Candidate Favorability Ratings

Tim Pawlenty Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen²	November 1, 2006	50%	47%	2%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	October 6-11, 2006	46%	44%	10%	818 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen²	October 4, 2006	57%	42%	2%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	September 13-15, 2006	50%	41%	9%	820 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen²	August 28, 2006	60%	39%	1%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen²	August 1, 2006	58%	39%	2%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	July 6-11, 2006	51%	37%	12%	813 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen²	June 26, 2006	57%	40%	3%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen²	April 27, 2006	51%	46%	3%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen²	February 20, 2006	57%	41%	2%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen²	January 16, 2006	57%	42%	1%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	November 3-4, 2002	56%	26%	18%	754 LV	± 3.5
Minnesota Poll¹	October 30 – November 1, 2002	46%	23%	31%	929 LV	± 3.2
Minnesota Poll¹	October 11-16, 2002	42%	24%	34%	1048 LV	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	September 13-17, 2002	41%	20%	39%	1038 LV	± 3.0
Minnesota Poll¹	June 20-24, 2002	37%	13%	50%	812 LV	± 3.4
Minnesota Poll¹	February 2-6, 2002	18%	9%	73%	1027 LV	± 3.1

1 "Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... Tim Pawlenty."

2 "Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ... Tim Pawlenty?"

Tim Pawlenty Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	October 26-30, 2006	42%	39%	18%	5%	625 LV	± 4.0
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	September 18-20, 2006	40%	35%	23%	2%	625 LV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Tim Pawlenty?"

Mike Hatch Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	November 1, 2006	51%	45%	4%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll²	October 6-11, 2006	52%	29%	19%	818 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen¹	October 4, 2006	57%	37%	5%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll²	September 13-15, 2006	53%	24%	23%	820 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen¹	August 28, 2006	57%	36%	7%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	August 1, 2006	54%	38%	9%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll²	July 6-11, 2006	51%	21%	28%	813 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen¹	June 26, 2006	58%	33%	9%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	April 27, 2006	60%	32%	8%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	February 20, 2006	60%	31%	9%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	January 16, 2006	57%	36%	7%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ... Mike Hatch?"

2 "Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... Mike Hatch."

Mike Hatch Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	October 26-30, 2006	44%	32%	21%	3%	625 LV	± 4.0
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	September 18-20, 2006	39%	23%	34%	5%	625 LV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Mike Hatch?"

Peter Hutchinson Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen²	November 1, 2006	41%	32%	25%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	October 6-11, 2006	22%	20%	58%	818 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen²	October 4, 2006	36%	30%	33%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	September 13-15, 2006	16%	6%	78%	820 LV	± 3.4
Rasmussen²	August 28, 2006	29%	28%	43%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen²	August 1, 2006	29%	29%	42%	500 LV	± 4.5
Minnesota Poll¹	July 6-11, 2006	12%	4%	84%	813 LV	± 3.4

1 "Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... Peter Hutchinson."

2 "Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ... Peter Hutchinson?"

Peter Hutchinson Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	October 26-30, 2006	12%	17%	40%	31%	625 LV	± 4.0
Pioneer Press / MPR¹	September 18-20, 2006	10%	5%	36%	49%	625 LV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Peter Hutchinson?"

Becky Lourey Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	April 27, 2006	43%	33%	24%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ... Becky Lourey?"

Steve Kelly Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	April 27, 2006	39%	32%	28%	500 LV	± 4.5
Rasmussen¹	February 20, 2006	47%	26%	27%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ... Steve Kelly?"

Candidate Political Ideology

Tim Pawlenty Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	August 28, 2006	57%	34%	2%	6%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "For each of the following, please let me know if you believe that person is politically conservative, moderate, or liberal ... Tim Pawlenty."

Mike Hatch Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Rasmussen¹	August 28, 2006	6%	43%	39%	13%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "For each of the following, please let me know if you believe that person is politically conservative, moderate, or liberal ... Mike Hatch."

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	Pawlenty	Hatch	Hutchinson	Other	Neither	Both / No diff.	No opinion
The economy	39%	39%	8%	0%	1%	1%	12%
Education	32%	45%	8%	0%	1%	1%	12%
Health care	30%	46%	8%	0%	1%	1%	13%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	October 23-28, 2006
Sample	663 LV
MoE	± 3.8

1 "Thinking again about the Governor's race between Tim Pawlenty, Mike Hatch, and Peter Hutchinson, which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues... "

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	Pawlenty	Hatch	Hutchinson	Other	Neither	Both / No diff.	No opinion
The economy	43%	27%	7%	0%	1%	2%	11%
Gas prices	30%	35%	5%	1%	7%	5%	17%
Education	39%	42%	6%	1%	0%	1%	11%
Health care	32%	47%	6%	0%	1%	1%	14%
Gay marriage	32%	28%	5%	0%	4%	4%	27%
Illegal immigration	36%	30%	4%	0%	4%	5%	21%
Minnesota way of life²	42%	39%	8%	1%	1%	1%	10%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	September 13-18, 2006
Sample	1,023 LV
MoE	± 3.9

1 "Thinking again about the Governor's race between Tim Pawlenty, Mike Hatch, and Peter Hutchinson, which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues... "

2 "Which candidate for Governor do you think best represents the Minnesota way of life?"

Pawlenty Stadium Handling Impact on Vote

Effect on Vote	September 13-18, 2006
More more likely	11%
Somewhat more likely	16%
No difference (Vol.)	26%
Somewhat less likely	16%
Much less likely	23%
No opinion	8%
Sample	1023 LV
MoE	± 3.9
Poll	Humphrey Institute¹

1 "Does the way Governor Tim Pawlenty handled the issue of sports stadiums in Minnesota make you more likely or less likely to vote for him for governor?"

Candidate Favorability Ratings

Statements Describing Tim Pawlenty

Statement¹	Extremely well	Very well	Somewhat well	Not too well	Not well at all	No opinion
He provides strong leadership	12%	24%	36%	11%	13%	4%
He really cares about people like you	10%	18%	27%	13%	26%	6%
He is honest	13%	26%	29%	12%	15%	6%
He is an independent thinker	10%	20%	29%	14%	19%	8%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	October 23-28, 2006
Sample	663 LV
MoE	± 3.8

1 "I am going to read you a list of statements. I would like you to tell me how well each one describes Tim Pawlenty."

Statements Describing Mike Hatch

Statement¹	Extremely well	Very well	Somewhat well	Not too well	Not well at all	No opinion
He provides strong leadership	12%	28%	27%	8%	9%	16%
He really cares about people like you	10%	27%	30%	9%	12%	12%
He is honest	9%	27%	31%	7%	8%	18%
He is an independent thinker	9%	27%	31%	8%	9%	16%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	October 23-28, 2006
Sample	663 LV
MoE	± 3.8

1 "Next I am going to read you a list of statements. I would like you to tell me how well each one describes Mike Hatch."