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Wisconsin: Election 2004 (President)

Election Matchup
Democratic Primary
Candidate Favorability Ratings
Candidate Political Ideology
Candidate Image
Candidate Issue Handling
Candidate Military Record
Assessment of Presidential Election

Election Matchup

George W. Bush (R) vs. John Kerry (D)

Poll	Date	Bush	Kerry	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Zogby	October 29 – November 1, 2004	45%	51%	4%		601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 28-31, 2004	44%	51%	3%	2%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 27-30, 2004	44%	52%	2%	2%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 26-29, 2004	45%	50%	2%	3%	600 LV	± 4.1
Rasmussen	October 16-29, 2004	46%	48%	6%		500 LV	± 4.5
Zogby	October 25-28, 2004	46%	49%	1%	4%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 24-27, 2004	46%	50%	1%	4%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 23-26, 2004	46%	48%	2%	4%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 22-25, 2004	48%	46%	2%	4%	601 LV	± 4.1
Zogby	October 21-24, 2004	48%	45%	3%	4%	601 LV	± 4.1
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	October 16-19, 2004	51%	45%	4%		678 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute³	October 14-19, 2004	48%	47%	2%	4%	623 LV	± 4.0
WPR / St. Norbert College	October 4-13, 2004	43%	48%	4%	6%	401 LV	± 5.0
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	October 3-5, 2004	49%	46%	5%		704 LV	± 4.0
Rasmussen	September 14-27, 2004	49%	46%	5%		400 LV	± 5.0
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	September 9-12, 2004	52%	44%	4%		631 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	September 1-12, 2004	49%	47%	2%	2%	400 LV	± 5.0
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	August 23-26, 2004	50%	47%	3%		645 LV	± 5.0
Rasmussen	August 1-26	48%	45%	7%		400 LV	± 5.0
Los Angeles Times²	August 21-24, 2004	48%	44%	0%	8%	512 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute³	June 21 – July 12, 2004	45%	45%	5%	5%	575 RV	± 4.0
Los Angeles Times²	June 5-8, 2004	44%	44%	1%	11%	694 RV	± 4.0
Rasmussen	April 25, 2004	42%	50%	3%	5%	500 LV	± 4.5

1 "Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Who would you vote for?"

2 "If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush, or Kerry?"

3 "Suppose the election for president were being held today. Who would you vote for if the only candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?"

George W. Bush (R) vs. John Kerry (D) vs. Ralph Nader (I)

Poll	Date	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Fox News²	October 30-31, 2004	48%	45%	1%	6%		700 LV	± 3.7
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	October 16-19, 2004	50%	44%	3%	3%		678 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute⁴	October 14-19, 2004	48%	46%	2%	1%	4%	623 LV	± 4.0
Rasmussen	October 14, 2004	47%	48%	1%	2%	1%	500 LV	± 4.5
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	October 3-5, 2004	49%	46%	2%	3%		704 LV	± 4.0
ABC News	September 16-19, 2004	53%	43%	1%	3%		938 RV	± 3.5
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	September 9-12, 2004	52%	44%	1%	3%		631 LV	± 5.0
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	August 23-26, 2004	48%	45%	4%	3%		645 LV	± 5.0
Los Angeles Times³	August 21-24, 2004	45%	44%	3%	0%	8%	512 LV	± 4.0
Humphrey Institute⁴	June 21 – July 12, 2004	43%	44%	4%	3%	6%	575 RV	± 4.0
Los Angeles Times³	June 5-8, 2004	44%	42%	4%	0%	10%	694 RV	± 4.0

1 "Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Who would you vote for?"

2 "If the election for president of the United States were held today, would you vote for: Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader?"

3 "If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader running as an independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry or Nader?"

4 "Suppose the election for president were being held today. Who would you vote for if the only candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, Independent Ralph Nader, and Libertarian Michael Badnarik?"

George W. Bush (R) vs. Russ Feingold (D)

Poll	Date	Bush	Feingold	No opinion	Sample	MoE
WISC-TV / Research 2000¹	July 1-3, 2002	52%	38%	10%	598 LV	± 4.0

1 "If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Russ Feingold, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?"

Democratic Primary

Democratic Primary Matchup

Candidate	February 4-6, 2004	February 11-12, 2004	February 13-15, 2004
John Kerry	41%	53%	47%
John Edwards	10%	16%	20%
Howard Dean	9%	11%	23%
Wesley Clark	15%	---	---
Dennis Kucinich	2%	2%	2%
Al Sharpton	2%	2%	1%
No opinion	21%	16%	0%
Poll	American Research Group¹	American Research Group¹	Reuters / MSNBC / Zogby²
Sample	600 RV	600 RV	600 LV
MoE	± 4.0	± 4.0	± 4.1

1 "If the Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between (Wesley Clark), Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote?"Poll of registered Democratic primary voters.

2 Poll of likely Democratic primary voters. Includes leaners. Without leaners, the percentage of undecided voters is 14 percent.

Candidate Favorability Ratings

George W. Bush Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Fox News¹	October 30-31, 2004	51%	45%	4%	700 LV	± 3.7
Rasmussen	October 16-29, 2004	52%	47%	1%	500 LV	± 4.5
Los Angeles Times²	June 5-8, 2004	51%	46%	3%	694 RV	± 4.0

1 "Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of ... George W. Bush?"

2 "What is your impression of George W. Bush? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?"

John Kerry Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Fox News²	October 30-31, 2004	48%	47%	5%	700 LV	± 3.7
Rasmussen	October 16-29, 2004	53%	47%	0%	500 LV	± 4.5
ABC News	September 16-19, 2004	37%	43%	20%	938 RV	± 3.5
Los Angeles Times³	June 5-8, 2004	48%	39%	13%	694 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 11-12, 2004	65%	19%	16%	600 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 4-6, 2004	53%	21%	26%	600 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kerry?"

2 "Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of ... John Kerry?"

3 "What is your impression of John Kerry? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?"

Ralph Nader Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Los Angeles Times¹	June 5-8, 2004	17%	28%	55%	694 RV	± 4.0

1 "What is your impression of Ralph Nader? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?"

John Edwards Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
American Research Group¹	February 11-12, 2004	29%	16%	55%	600 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 4-6, 2004	21%	15%	64%	600 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Edwards?"

Howard Dean Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
American Research Group¹	February 11-12, 2004	19%	43%	38%	600 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 4-6, 2004	20%	37%	43%	600 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean?"

Dennis Kucinich Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
American Research Group¹	February 11-12, 2004	8%	36%	56%	600 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 4-6, 2004	5%	32%	63%	600 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dennis Kucinich?"

Al Sharpton Favorability Rating

Poll	Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion	Sample	MoE
American Research Group¹	February 11-12, 2004	5%	52%	43%	600 RV	± 4.0
American Research Group¹	February 4-6, 2004	6%	49%	45%	600 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Al Sharpton?"

Candidate Political Ideology

George W. Bush Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Too conservative	Not conservative enough	About right	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Humphrey Institute¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004	31%	18%	43%	8%	575 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you think President Bush's position on the issues are too conservative, not conservative enough, or about right?"

John Kerry Political Ideology

Poll	Date	Too liberal	Not liberal enough	About right	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Humphrey Institute¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004	40%	10%	41%	9%	575 RV	± 4.0

1 "Do you think Senator John Kerry's position on the issues are too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?"

Candidate Image

Trait¹	October 30-31, 2004
Trait¹	Bush	Kerry	Both	Neither	No opinion
Is a stronger leader	50%	40%	2%	3%	5%
Is more likely to keep his word	48%	39%	1%	7%	5%
Under-stands the average American better	43%	45%	1%	7%	4%
Poll	Fox News
Sample	700 LV
MoE	± 3.7

1 "Which candidate do you think...?"

Candidate Image

Issue¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004			October 14-19, 2004
Issue¹	Bush	Kerry	No opinion	Bush	Kerry	No opinion
He will be a strong leader for the country	52%	39%	9%	49%	44%	7%
He cares about people like me	40%	47%	12%	43%	50%	8%
He flip-flops on the issues	31%	54%	15%	27%	60%	13%
He is stubborn	67%	15%	15%	71%	17%	12%
Poll	Humphrey Institute			Humphrey Institute
Sample	575 RV			623 LV
MoE	± 4.0			± 4.0

1 "I am going to read you a list of statements. Tell me whether you think each statement applies more to George W. Bush or John Kerry...?"

Candidate Traits

Trait	George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other / No opinion
Clear stand on issues	59%	29%	12%
Strong leader	60%	32%	8%
Will make country safer	56%	36%	8%
Appealing personality	52%	37%	11%
Better qualified to be commander-in-chief	54%	40%	6%
Honest and trustworthy	47%	37%	16%
Shares your values	50%	42%	8%
Understands your problems	42%	45%	13%
Poll	ABC News
Date	September 16-19, 2004
Sample	938 RV
Margin	± 3.5

Candidate Image

Statement¹	June 5-8, 2004					August 21-24, 2004
Statement¹	Bush	Kerry	Both	Nei- ther	No opinion	Bush	Kerry	Both	Nei- ther	No opinion
He cares about people like me	34%	39%	8%	13%	6%	36%	42%	5%	10%	7%
He will be a strong leader for the country	44%	35%	8%	6%	7%	42%	42%	6%	5%	5%
He has the honesty and integrity to serve as president	41%	36%	9%	9%	5%	39%	38%	10%	7%	6%
He flip flops on the issues	20%	47%	13%	10%	10%	19%	48%	16%	8%	9%
He would be best at keeping the country safe from terrorism	51%	25%	6%	8%	10%	47%	34%	5%	6%	8%
He has better ideas for strengthening the nation's economy	36%	42%	4%	8%	10%	34%	45%	4%	6%	11%
He shares my moral values	45%	32%	7%	8%	8%	41%	39%	6%	8%	6%
He is too ideological and stubborn	46%	12%	7%	18%	17%	---	---	---	---	---
He will build respect for the United States around the world	---	---	---	---	---	35%	45%	5%	7%	8%
He does not admit his mistakes and is inflexible in changing his mind when policies don't seem to be working	---	---	---	---	---	48%	22%	7%	11%	12%
He is more likely to develop a plan for achieving success in Iraq	---	---	---	---	---	43%	38%	3%	7%	9%
He would be more committed to implementing the recommendations in the 9/11 Commission report	---	---	---	---	---	35%	38%	8%	7%	12%
He would be more effective as Commander in Chief	---	---	---	---	---	45%	40%	3%	6%	6%
He has provided a more detailed plan for the policies he would pursue in the next four years	---	---	---	---	---	36%	33%	5%	15%	11%
Poll	Los Angeles Times					Los Angeles Times
Sample	694 RV					512 LV
MoE	± 4.0					± 4.0

1 "Does this apply more to George W. Bush or more to John Kerry?"

Confidence in Kerry as Commander-in-Chief

Poll	Date	Confident	Not confident	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Los Angeles Times¹	August 21-24, 2004	56%	41%	3%	512 LV	± 4.0
Los Angeles Times¹	June 6-8, 2004	54%	40%	6%	694 RV	± 4.0

1 "How confident are you that John Kerry would be a good Commander-in-Chief? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident or not confident at all?"

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	Bush	Kerry	Both	Neither	No opinion
Economy	44%	48%	1%	2%	0%
War on terrorism	52%	38%	2%	2%	6%
Health care	38%	51%	1%	3%	7%
Situation in Iraq	50%	40%	1%	2%	7%
Poll	Fox News
Date	October 30-31, 2004
Sample	700 LV
MoE	± 3.7

1 "Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues?"

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	June 21 – July 12, 2004			October 14-19, 2004
Issue¹	Bush	Kerry	No opinion	Bush	Kerry	No opinion
Terrorism	60%	31%	9%	56%	38%	6%
The situation in Iraq	52%	39%	9%	53%	41%	6%
Gay marriage	40%	42%	18%	41%	38%	21%
The economy	45%	49%	6%	45%	50%	5%
Education	39%	50%	10%	45%	49%	6%
Health care	35%	55%	10%	42%	52%	6%
Medicare and prescription drugs	34%	55%	10%	37%	56%	7%
Poll	Humphrey Institute			Humphrey Institute
Sample	589 RV			623 LV
MoE	± 4.0			± 4.0

1 "Which candidate, George W. Bush or John Kerry, do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues ...?"

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue	George W. Bush	John Kerry	No opinion
The situation in Iraq	49%	45%	6%
The war on terrorism overseas not including Iraq	50%	43%	8%
Policies to protect us at home against terrorism	51%	43%	6%
The economy	38%	56%	6%
Health care / prescription drugs	33%	59%	9%
Taxes	42%	49%	9%
Education	41%	52%	7%
Environmental issues	29%	60%	12%
Immigration	38%	41%	21%
Poll	WPR / St. Norbert College
Date	October 4-13, 2004
Sample	401 LV
MoE	± 5.0

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue¹	George W. Bush	John Kerry	Same	No opinion
The economy	48%	48%	1%	3%
Terrorism	54%	41%	2%	3%
Situation in Iraq	53%	44%	1%	2%
Poll	CNN/ Gallup / USA Today
Date	October 3-5, 2004
Sample	704 LV
MoE	± 4.0

1 "Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues...?"

Candidate Issue Handling

Issue	George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other / No opinion
Terrorism	58%	34%	8%
Iraq	56%	37%	7%
Taxes	49%	42%	9%
Economy	48%	45%	7%
Education	46%	43%	11%
Health care	40%	49%	11%
Helping middle class	41%	49%	10%
Creating jobs	42%	48%	10%
Poll	ABC News
Date	September 16-19, 2004
Sample	938 RV
MoE	± 3.5

Candidate Economic Plan

Candidate¹	Yes	No	No opinion
John Kerry	36%	46%	18%
George W. Bush	39%	47%	14%
Poll	Los Angeles Times
Date	August 21-24, 2004
Sample	512 LV
MoE	± 4.0

1 "Do you think (John Kerry / George W. Bush) has laid out a clear plan for how he would accelerate economic growth and create more jobs, or not?"

Issue Positions Associated With Candidates

Issue	Statement¹	John Kerry	George W. Bush
Education	The government in Washington should insist that states set academic standards and measure student performance	18%	43%
	The government should leave academic standards entirely up to the states	26%	16%
	Somewhere in between	24%	22%
	No opinion	33%	19%
Taxes	The government in Washington should cut taxes for everyone, including people making over $200,000 a year, even if it means reducing services	17%	60%
	The government should cut taxes for everyone, except for people making over $200,000 in order to provide services	44%	12%
	Somewhere in between	22%	18%
	No opinion	18%	11%
Iraq	Increase in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq	7%	55%
	Decrease in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq	61%	14%
	Somewhere in between	21%	26%
	No opinion	11%	6%
Poll	Humphrey Institute
Date	June 21 – July 12, 2004
Sample	575 RV
MoE	± 4.0

1 "Which statement do you think comes closer to (John Kerry's / George W. Bush's) point of view or do you think he falls somewhere in between? ..."

Candidate Military Record

Truthfulness of John Kerry's Account of Vietnam Service

Poll	Date	Def. truth	Prof. truth	Def. lying	Prob. lying	No opinion	Sample	MoE
CNN / Gallup / USA Today¹	August 23-26, 2004	26%	35%	22%	8%	9%	645 LV	± 5.0

1 "Based on what you have heard or read about John Kerry's accounts of his military service in the Vietnam War, do you think Kerry is definitely telling the truth about his military service in Vietnam, probably telling the truth, probably lying, or definitely lying about his military service in Vietnam?"

Kerry Vietnam War Actions As Reflection of Presidential Qualities

Poll	Date	Qualities America needs	Inappropriate Judgment	Both	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Los Angeles Times¹	August 21-24, 2004	39%	41%	3%	17%	600 LV	± 4.0

1 "As you may know, John Kerry is a Vietnam veteran who earned several medals for combat. He also protested the war when he returned. Which of the following comes closer to you view: "In his combat missions in Vietnam, John Kerry demonstrated qualities America needs in a president," OR "By protesting the war in Vietnam, John Kerry demonstrated a judgment and belief that is inappropriate in a president?"

Impact of Candidate Military Record On Vote

Candidate¹	More Likely	Less likely	No difference	No opinion
George W. Bush	18%	20%	58%	4%
John Kerry	31%	20%	46%	3%
Poll	Los Angeles Times
Date	August 21-24, 2004
Sample	512 LV
MoE	± 4.0

1 "Does what you know about (George W. Bush's / John Kerry's) military record make you more or less likely to vote for him for president, or doesn't his military record make a difference in the way you will vote one way or another?"

Assessment of Presidential Election

Reaction to Bush Victory

Poll	Date	Pleased	Disappointed	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	54%	44%	2%	503	± 4.0

1 "How do you feel about Bush's victory in the presidential election? Are you very pleased, somewhat pleased, somewhat disappointed, or very disappointed?"

Surprised at Bush Victory

Poll	Date	Not at all	A little	Somewhat	Very	Extremely	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	37%	24%	28%	7%	3%	503	± 4.0

1 "Thinking back to when you learned Bush had won, would you say you were not at all surprised, a little surprised, somewhat surprised, very surprised, or extremely surprised?"

Talked to Family About Presidential Election

Poll	Date	A lot	Some	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	49%	33%	13%	5%	0%	503	± 4.0

1 "Before the presidential election, how much did you talk with members of your family about it?"

Talked to Friends and Neighbors About Presidential Election

Poll	Date	A lot	Some	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	31%	34%	23%	12%	0%	503	± 4.0

1 "And how much did you talk with your friends and neighbors about the presidential election?"

Agreement with Family About Who Should Win Presidential Election

Poll	Date	Agreed	Disagreed	Evenly split	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	62%	6%	29%	2%	503	± 4.0

1 "Would you say that your family pretty much agreed with you about who should win, pretty much disagreed with you or were they pretty evenly split?"

Agreement with Friends and Neighbors About Who Should Win Presidential Election

Poll	Date	Almost all agreed	Most agreed	Most disagreed	Almost all disagreed	Split	No opinion	Sample	MoE
Badger Poll¹	January 4-12, 2005	8%	30%	6%	1%	48%	7%	503	± 4.0

1 "Would you say that almost all your friends and neighbors agreed with you about who should win, most agreed with you, most disagreed with you, almost all disagreed with you, or were they pretty evenly split?"