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2004
November 25, 2004. "Moral Values" Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy in 2004 Presidential Election
The initial conclusion of media commentators that moral values determined the outcome of the 2004 presidential election was off the mark, neglecting the impacts of partisanship and the economy. The Republican Party made important strides in widening its coalition. On the other hand, early conclusions that the Democratic Party's coalition dooms it to defeat are premature; the Party continues to have solid bases of support that put it in a competitive position.
November 1, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
The 2004 Elections Project began nearly one year ago on the premise that the race for the presidency would be fought and won in the Upper Midwest. With the election one day out, nothing has been decided - including which candidate will take the 27 highly prized electoral votes in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
October 30, 2004. Bush Opens Lead Among Protestants, Catholics, and the Religiously Active
President George W. Bush has made significant headway in locking down the support of large religious groups and reversing the advantage that Democrats once enjoyed among some of these critical voting blocks.
October 30, 2004. Kerry Opens Leads Among Youngest and Older Voters; Middle-Aged Voters Prefer Bush
The presidential election has bared glaring divides between the generations. The youngest and oldest Americans are rallying behind Senator John Kerry, while younger middle-aged voters strongly support President George W. Bush.
October 29, 2004. Here Come the Third Parties: Gaining Access to the Presidential Ballot
Third party presidential candidates are successfully fighting through obstacles to gain ballot access in the great majority of states. Three third party candidates are on three-dozen or more state ballots, with candidates from two other minor parties also winning access in a dozen or more states.
October 29, 2004. Kerry and Bush Battle for Rural Voters
The presidential contest in the Upper Midwest is deadlocked, with the decisions of rural voters likely to tip the outcome. President George W. Bush has opened a double digit lead in the Minnesota countryside, while Senator John Kerry has fought to a draw in Iowa and Wisconsin. Kerry dominates in urban areas, while the Bush advantage lies in the suburbs - though it has considerably narrowed in Minnesota.
October 27, 2004. Nader and Libertarian Play King Makers in Deadlocked Minnesotan Race
President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry remain deadlocked in Minnesota, with third party candidates drawing the support of 6 percent of likely voters. Kerry is most hurt by the support for Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Michael Badnarik, though some Bush backers are drawn to the third party candidates as well.
October 25, 2004. Crucial Votes in the Race for President: Independent Voters in the Upper Midwest
With both the Democratic and Republican parties firmly shoring up their base, George W. Bush and John Kerry are focusing their efforts down the home stretch on broadening their appeal to the voters who are independent. Although the number of independents who remain uncommitted to a candidate has shrunk, the independent vote will determine who wins the election.
October 20, 2004. Bush and Kerry Deadlocked in Wisconsin
Senator John Kerry has moved into a statistical tie with President George W. Bush among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to the Humphrey Institute Survey.
October 18, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
The battle for the presidency continues to be closely fought in the Upper Midwest. President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry and their families regularly visit Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and media advertising buys in these states are among the 10 largest in the country.
October 7, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
The race for president remains extremely tight in two Upper Midwestern states - Iowa and Minnesota - based on polls taken after the presidential and vice presidential debates. Polls before the debates showed that President George W. Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over John Kerry in both Wisconsin and South Dakota. These races may have tightened up after the debates.
October 5, 2004. Kerry Pulls Even in Humphrey Survey of Iowa Voters
After Republicans successfully damaged Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign during August, the Democratic candidate has pulled even with President George W. Bush. The second survey of voters in Iowa by the Humphrey Institute shows that the first presidential debate sharply narrowed Bush's advantage on his signature issue (handling terrorism).
October 1, 2004. 2004 Presidential Election Too Close to Be Forecast
Social scientists have developed sophisticated models for forecasting the outcome of presidential elections based on measures of economic conditions and the overall political standing of the incumbent during the summer of the election year.
September 1, 2004. Third Party Heartland
As the 2004 election season heats up, the attention of journalists and political observers is focused on the contests between the two major political parties. Missed is the persistent strength of third parties in recent state and national elections in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota.
August 24, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: Legislative Races to Watch in the Upper Midwest in 2004
The presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry will dominate news reports on the election season. Under the radar screen are critical battles for control of Congress and state legislatures.
August 17, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: The Presidential Race In The Upper Midwest
The outcome of the 2004 presidential election will be determined in a dozen or so battleground states including three key states in the Upper Midwest: Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
August 10, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: 2004 State House Races to Watch in Minnesota
The Minnesota campaigns for the state's House of Representatives are unusually important and prominent in an election year with no state senate or gubernatorial races. Republicans seek to maintain the majority the party has held since the 1998 election while the DFL needs to pick up 15 seats and lose none to take control of the House.
August 1, 2004. Policy Brief: National Guard and Reserves. The Burden On U.S. Army Reserves and Army National Guard
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have placed a burden on all the U.S. military services, most notably the Army's 500,000
troops. Almost 140,000 U.S. military personnel are in Iraq, with more than 15,000 in Afghanistan and 30,000 in Kuwait. Many of the remaining U.S. troops are committed to service in Germany and South Korea as well as to peacekeeping operations in the Balkans.
July 22, 2004. Rare for an Election Year: In 2004, Foreign Policy Matters
Why are Republicans dwelling on John Edwards's lack of foreign policy experience while Democrats focus on Dick Cheney's role in making the now discredited case for war in Iraq? The answer: For the first time in 30 years, foreign policy matters.
July 21, 2004. Humphrey Survey: The Upper Midwest Battleground
After largely ignoring the Upper Midwest in his 2000 campaign, President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are showering attention on Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. While any of these states can tip a deadlocked election, the region's 27 Electoral College votes is equal to Florida's and greater than Ohio's (20).
July 1, 2004. Narrow Gender Gap in Upper Midwest
Much has been made during the 2004 election campaign of the divide between the political parties, with most of the country designated "blue" or "red" states. Geography, however, is not the only cleavage. Gender also has been an important divide since 1980.
June 7, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
Is the Democratic pickup in a special U.S. House election in South Dakota last Tuesday a harbinger of things to come in November? In a crop of May polls, Senator John Kerry holds a very narrow advantage over President George Bush in Minnesota and Iowa.
May 27, 2004. Rumbles on the Prairie: June Primaries in the Upper Midwest
June elections offer an early prelude of the coming political fireworks. South Dakota has a high-profile "special election" for the U.S. House of Representative seat that had been held by Republican William Janklow. The Democrats may pick up this longtime Republican safe seat. Primaries in South Dakota and Iowa will determine the starting line-ups in what could be heated state elections this fall.
May 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Education. Early Trends of the No Child Left Behind Act for Upper Midwestern States
The federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) has helped stimulate improvements in some Midwestern schools and districts,
while, at the same time, producing controversies similar to those in other parts of the country.
April 25, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
Recent polls in the Upper Midwest confirm that the region is closely divided, with some early signs that it may defy past patterns. South Dakotans remain conservative but are currently supporting Democratic nominees in both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. Although George W. Bush narrowly lost both Wisconsin and Minnesota in 2000, he enjoys a small lead in Wisconsin and is trailing in Minnesota.
April 20, 2004. Third Party Threat: It's Not Just Nader
The hot topic in handicapping the presidential election is whether independent candidate Ralph Nader will be the spoiler - again - by winning a small but decisive percentage of the vote in an evenly divided country.
April 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Medicare. The Winners and Losers in the New Medicare Sweepstakes
President Bush signed the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 in December following a divided and mostly partisan vote in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The new Medicare legislation presents new challenges for the country and the Upper Midwest where two million beneficiaries live.
March 18, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
Recent polls in the Upper Midwest show early signs that the 2004 elections may follow the electoral map of past elections - reelection of Senate incumbents in Iowa and Wisconsin and a presidential race that produces South Dakota for the Republicans and Iowa and possibly Minnesota for the Democrats.
March 7, 2004. Americans Support Third Party Candidacies of Jesse Ventura and John McCain
The hot topic in handicapping the presidential election is whether the announced independent candidate Ralph Nader will be the spoiler - again - by winning a small but decisive percentage of the vote in an evenly divided country.
March 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Health Insurance. Implications for the Upper Midwest of Policies to Address Health Insurance Coverage
The United States is one of only a handful of developed countries that does not provide health insurance coverage for all of its citizens. As health care costs continue to rise, the number of uninsured continues to grow, now reaching 44 million American citizens or 14% of the population.
February 25, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup
The 2004 Elections Project is compiling the most comprehensive public opinion data for the 2004 elections in the Upper Midwest. The Poll Roundup assembles the latest results on pairings of candidates, policy issues, and other important political attitudes.
February 22, 2004. Policy Trumps Politics
The conventional wisdom is that voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses are preoccupied with defeating President George W. Bush. Who can beat Bush is all Democratic voters care about.
February 1, 2004. Policy Brief: The Economy. Economic Challenges Facing the Upper Midwest
Even as the country's economy has shown significant improvements overall, the five states in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South and North Dakota) face significant and, in certain respects, unique challenges on several fronts, including job creation and the lack of fiscal stimulus from defense spending.
January 14, 2004. Republican Surge in the Upper Midwest
The Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota) is becoming increasingly friendly to the Republican Party. In recent elections, the GOP has consistently improved or solidified its position in states across the region.
January 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Welfare Reform. Three Paths to Welfare Reform in the Upper Midwest
Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin represent three distinct paths to welfare reform. Minnesota has focused on promoting work and reducing poverty and Wisconsin has emphasized the reduction of welfare dependency. Michigan has adopted a program model that is between these two approaches.
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University of Minnesota
